Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 32¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 31¢ (band 31¢–34¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 77.2:1 ask, $627/$48.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $21.4k in 24h

Book 77.2:1 ask, $627/$48.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 14:12 UTC: Band breach (lower): 32¢ → 28¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 29¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 28¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots