OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Window 12 Aug 2026, 18:25 UTC → 12 Aug 2026, 19:55 UTC

Price at window start 24¢ → at trigger 23¢ → at close 22¢

YES down · NO up

Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 23¢ (band 23¢–34¢)
band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
BOOK Book 2.4:1 ask, $10.6k/$25.5k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.8k, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 977 trades / 7d
VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $27.5k in 24h

Book 2.4:1 ask, $10.6k/$25.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

12 Aug 2026, 18:25 UTC: Band breach (lower): 24¢ → 23¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 18 min before the break

DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAIN STUCK, WITH IRAN AND THE U.S. DEMANDING CONCESSIONS NEITHER SIDE APPEARS READY TO MAKE, AS PAKISTAN AND QATAR ATTEMPT TO MEDIATE AND PAKISTAN'S DEFENSE MINISTER SAID THE TWO WERE CLOSE TO AN ARRANGEMENT, THOUGH A JUNE INTERIM PEACE AGREEMENT IS NEARING THE END OF ITS 60-DAY NEGOTIATING PERIOD AND CONTINUED CLASHES HAVE EFFECTIVELY UNDERMINED THE DEAL.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 22¢, held +2.0ptspts
Peak move: +2.0pts
Held 100% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 22¢
Graded from 180 snapshots