US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +12.5pts: 28¢ at window start → 41¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $80.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $917/$506 within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.3k, 13.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,557 trades / 7d

Book 1.8:1 bid, $917/$506 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (5)

• 12 Aug 2026, 08:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 33¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 08:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 33¢ → 30¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 36¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 09:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 45¢ (+8.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 09:31 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 41¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 44 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 32¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 30¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +16.5pts
• Held 76% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 41¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots