REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Window 12 Aug 2026, 10:50 UTC → 12 Aug 2026, 12:20 UTC
Price at window start 39¢ → at trigger 29¢ → at close 23¢
YES down · NO up
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -16.0pts: 39¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 27¢ (band 27¢–74¢)
band from 164 hourly obs / 6.9d
- VOLUME 3.8× this market's 7-day norm, $189.7k in 24h
- BOOK Book 8.5:1 bid, $6.8k/$806 within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.3k, 12.7× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 2,869 trades / 7d
Book 8.5:1 bid, $6.8k/$806 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (7)
- 12 Aug 2026, 10:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 39¢ → 29¢ (-9.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 12 Aug 2026, 10:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 29¢ → 23¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 12 Aug 2026, 10:56 UTC: Band breach (lower): 23¢ → 21¢ (-2.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 12 Aug 2026, 10:59 UTC: Sustained reprice: 21¢ → 24¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 12 Aug 2026, 11:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 24¢ → 27¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 12 Aug 2026, 11:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 31¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 12 Aug 2026, 11:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 31¢ → 25¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 217 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 22¢, drift +7.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 25¢, held +14.0ptspts
- Peak move: +19.5pts
- Held 82% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 23¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots