US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.9× this market's 7-day norm, $196.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $5.9k/$3.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $705, 2.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,090 trades / 7d

Book 1.7:1 bid, $5.9k/$3.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 12 Aug 2026, 15:28 UTC: Sustained reprice: 24¢ → 27¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 15:39 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 32¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 15:49 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 27¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 110 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 28¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 28¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +8.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots