US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 23¢ at window start → 25¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 26¢ (band 26¢–74¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.0× this market's 7-day norm, $203.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $8.1k/$4.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $370, 1.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,181 trades / 7d

Book 1.7:1 bid, $8.1k/$4.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 12 Aug 2026, 20:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 23¢ → 26¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC: Band breach (lower): 26¢ → 25¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 25¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots