US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 21¢ at window start → 24¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 26¢ (band 26¢–74¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 3.8× this market's 7-day norm, $190.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.7:1 bid, $5.4k/$1.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.5k, 5.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,941 trades / 7d

Book 3.7:1 bid, $5.4k/$1.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 12:59 UTC: Sustained reprice: 21¢ → 24¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 38 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 23¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 56% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 24¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots