US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 8¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 9¢ (band 9¢–64¢)
  band from 158 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $3.6k/$7.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.2k, 1.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 5,181 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h

Book 2.1:1 ask, $3.6k/$7.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 18:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 8¢ → 5¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 27 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 5¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 5¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 6¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots