UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 23¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 23¢ (band 23¢–36¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $1.3k/$1.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $598 in 24h

Book 1.4:1 ask, $1.3k/$1.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 17:52 UTC: Band breach (lower): 23¢ → 23¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 23¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 23¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots