Next Fed rate hike?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 59¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 55¢ (band 55¢–65¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.6× this market's 7-day norm, $61.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 ask, $12.5k/$29.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.8k, 4.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 882 trades / 7d

Book 2.4:1 ask, $12.5k/$29.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 12 Aug 2026, 12:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 59¢ → 55¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 13:42 UTC: Band breach (lower): 55¢ → 54¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: posted 16 min before the break

🚨 CPI COOLS — FED HOLD STILL FAVORED July inflation showed little cause for alarm: 🔸 Headline CPI: +0.1% M/M | +3.4% Y/Y 🔸 Core CPI: +0.2% M/M | +2.5% Y/Y 🔸 Energy: -1.5% Prediction markets still favor the Fed holding rates in September at 68.2%, versus 17% for a 25bp cut and 9.6% for a hike. For now, hold remains the base case. https://t.co/3TXWilnZWT

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.4× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 60 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 56¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 55¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 53¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots