Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -27.1pts: 29¢ at window start → 1¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 30¢ (band 30¢–85¢)
  band from 159 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 4.9:1 ask, $125/$613 within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k, 5.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,499 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.2× this market's 7-day norm, $4.9k in 24h

Book 4.9:1 ask, $125/$613 within 10¢ · spread 0.6¢

Triggers (7)

• 12 Aug 2026, 00:57 UTC: Sustained reprice: 29¢ → 35¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 27¢ (-7.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 14¢ (-12.6pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:15 UTC: Band breach (lower): 14¢ → 16¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:20 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 12¢ (-3.7pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 12¢ → 8¢ (-4.8pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:31 UTC: Sustained reprice: 8¢ → 2¢ (-5.3pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 985 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 34¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 8¢, held -20.9ptspts
• Peak move: +6.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 1¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots