Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +28.7pts: 71¢ at window start → 99¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 84¢ (band 71¢–84¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 11.9× this market's 7-day norm, $211.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.9:1 ask, $27.1k/$78.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.6k, 13.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,148 trades / 7d

Book 2.9:1 ask, $27.1k/$78.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (7)

• 12 Aug 2026, 01:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 71¢ → 67¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 67¢ → 71¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:22 UTC: Sustained reprice: 71¢ → 74¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 74¢ → 82¢ (+8.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:28 UTC: Sustained reprice: 82¢ → 95¢ (+12.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:34 UTC: Band breach (upper): 95¢ → 94¢ (-0.6pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 01:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 94¢ → 97¢ (+3.1pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.31× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 883 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 67¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 92¢, held -21.9ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 99¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots