Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 57¢ at window start → 61¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 58¢ (band 55¢–58¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $26.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.4:1 bid, $36.5k/$10.6k within 10¢

Book 3.4:1 bid, $36.5k/$10.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 21:00 UTC: Band breach (upper): 57¢ → 59¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.29× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 59¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 59¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 61¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots