Fed rate hike in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
• VOLUME 4.3× this market's 7-day norm, $214.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $61.3k/$78.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.3k, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 938 trades / 7d

Book 1.3:1 ask, $61.3k/$78.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 12 Aug 2026, 12:31 UTC: Band breach (lower): 56¢ → 53¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 12:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 53¢ → 56¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 13:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 56¢ → 53¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@financialjuice · X: surfaced 9 min after the break began

Traders keep bets on 45% chance of september fed rate hike

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.38× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 37 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 54¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 33% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 55¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots