Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 49¢ at window start → 46¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 47¢ (band 47¢–57¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.7× this market's 7-day norm, $16.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $4.5k/$8.3k within 10¢

Book 1.8:1 ask, $4.5k/$8.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 15:19 UTC: Band breach (lower): 49¢ → 47¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: posted 19 min before the break

SANTANDER STILL SEES SEPTEMBER FED HIKE July CPI is unlikely to decide the Fed’s September move, according to Santander’s Stephen Stanley. Unrounded core CPI rose 0.215% M/M, equivalent to a 2.6% annualized pace. Despite the broadly in-line inflation report, Stanley continues to expect the Fed to raise rates in September, followed by another hike in December.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 46¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 46¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots