Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 96¢ at window start → 96¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 96¢ (band 90¢–96¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.5× this market's 7-day norm, $350.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 8.0:1 ask, $73.3k/$583.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.8k, 5.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 4,848 trades / 7d

Book 8.0:1 ask, $73.3k/$583.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 11:56 UTC: Band breach (upper): 96¢ → 96¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@Polymarket · X: posted 52 min before the break

🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory https://t.co/cYzp3DSicD

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 252 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 96¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +0.9pts
• Held 53% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 96¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots