Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.5pts: 44¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.6× this market's 7-day norm, $2.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 48.5:1 ask, $194/$9.4k within 10¢

Book 48.5:1 ask, $194/$9.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 15:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 39¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.37× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 39¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 40¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.5pts
• Held 82% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots