Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 52¢ at window start → 50¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 bid, $10.6k/$4.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $3.6k in 24h

Book 2.6:1 bid, $10.6k/$4.1k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 11 Aug 2026, 13:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 52¢ → 47¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 47¢ → 50¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.32× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 57 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 49¢, drift -2.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 48¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 40% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 50¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots