Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 82¢ at window start → 85¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 81¢ (band 73¢–81¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $13.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.9:1 bid, $24.2k/$6.1k within 10¢

Book 3.9:1 bid, $24.2k/$6.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 21:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 82¢ → 85¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.43× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 85¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 85¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 85¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots