Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 80¢ at window start → 82¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 80¢ (band 73¢–80¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 3.6× this market's 7-day norm, $13.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.9:1 bid, $23.3k/$3.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $531, 70.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,157 trades / 7d

Book 5.9:1 bid, $23.3k/$3.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 11 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC: Band breach (upper): 80¢ → 88¢ (+8.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 12:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 88¢ → 82¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 24 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 85¢, drift -3.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 82¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +8.0pts
• Held 25% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 82¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots