Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +6.3pts: 48¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 48¢ (band 24¢–48¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $33.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 ask, $2.6k/$9.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $283, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 748 trades / 7d

Book 3.8:1 ask, $2.6k/$9.7k within 10¢ · spread 0.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 18:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 52¢ (+3.8pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 30 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 52¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 53¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +6.5pts
• Held 96% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 55¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots