Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +7.0pts: 73¢ at window start → 80¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 74¢ (band 66¢–74¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.5× this market's 7-day norm, $24.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 bid, $14.8k/$5.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.2k, 1.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 309 trades / 7d

Book 2.6:1 bid, $14.8k/$5.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 11 Aug 2026, 01:01 UTC: Band breach (upper): 73¢ → 86¢ (+12.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 01:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 86¢ → 81¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.56× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 15 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 80¢, drift -5.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 80¢, held +6.5ptspts
• Peak move: +12.5pts
• Held 56% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 80¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots