Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 94¢ at window start → 95¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 94¢ (band 90¢–94¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $71.3k/$44.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $4.3k in 24h

Book 1.6:1 bid, $71.3k/$44.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 15:08 UTC: Band breach (upper): 94¢ → 95¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 95¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 95¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 95¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots