Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 54¢ at window start → 51¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 53¢ (band 53¢–56¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 6.2× this market's 7-day norm, $40.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 ask, $63.6k/$147.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $13.0k, 26.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 815 trades / 7d

Book 2.3:1 ask, $63.6k/$147.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 18:23 UTC: Band breach (lower): 54¢ → 53¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 44 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 53¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 51¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 51¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots