US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 25¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $54.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $4.5k/$2.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.6k, 3.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,237 trades / 7d

Book 1.5:1 bid, $4.5k/$2.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 13:35 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 22¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 20 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 22¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots