US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +10.0pts: 14¢ at window start → 25¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $51.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $3.1k/$2.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.9k, 9.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,235 trades / 7d

Book 1.4:1 bid, $3.1k/$2.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 11 Aug 2026, 11:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 18¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 11:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 18¢ → 22¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 11:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 22¢ → 25¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 64 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +10.0ptspts
• Peak move: +12.5pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 25¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots