US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 ask, $14.5k/$32.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.8k, 4.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 924 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $27.5k in 24h

Book 2.3:1 ask, $14.5k/$32.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 11 Aug 2026, 11:27 UTC: Band breach (lower): 24¢ → 23¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 11:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 23¢ → 26¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: posted 22 min before the break

PAKISTAN SEES US-IRAN DEAL GETTING CLOSER Pakistan’s defense minister says US-Iran signals point toward a potential arrangement, with developments “shaking up in favour of peace.” Meanwhile, Pakistan’s interior minister has arrived in Tehran for talks, adding to diplomatic efforts.

View the post

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held -2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots