US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 25¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 ask, $15.9k/$38.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.8k, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 949 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $27.5k in 24h

Book 2.4:1 ask, $15.9k/$38.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 18:15 UTC: Band breach (lower): 24¢ → 23¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 23¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 25¢
• Graded from 177 snapshots