US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 26¢ at window start → 29¢ at close
• BOOK Book 4.4:1 bid, $5.4k/$1.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $289, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,358 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $62.4k in 24h

Book 4.4:1 bid, $5.4k/$1.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 21:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 26¢ → 30¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 32¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 32¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.5pts
• Held 54% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 29¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots