US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +7.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 31¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $2.7k/$5.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.7k, 9.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,960 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $67.7k in 24h

Book 2.0:1 ask, $2.7k/$5.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 11 Aug 2026, 11:24 UTC: Sustained reprice: 24¢ → 29¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 11:38 UTC: Sustained reprice: 29¢ → 32¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 11:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 28¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 48 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 28¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +8.5pts
• Held 82% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 31¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots