US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 33¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $69.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.0:1 ask, $1.5k/$4.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $898, 4.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,060 trades / 7d

Book 3.0:1 ask, $1.5k/$4.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 11 Aug 2026, 14:02 UTC: Sustained reprice: 33¢ → 36¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 14:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 32¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 15:31 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 28¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 60 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 35¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots