OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Window 11 Aug 2026, 09:24 UTC → 11 Aug 2026, 10:54 UTC

Price at window start 28¢ → at trigger 27¢ → at close 22¢

YES down · NO up

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 27¢ (band 27¢–74¢)
band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
BOOK Book 2.5:1 bid, $2.9k/$1.1k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.7k, 17.0× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,885 trades / 7d
VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $50.3k in 24h

Book 2.5:1 bid, $2.9k/$1.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

11 Aug 2026, 09:24 UTC: Band breach (lower): 28¢ → 27¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
11 Aug 2026, 09:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 21¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 21 min before the break

DISCUSSIONS ABOUT NEGOTIATIONS AND DIPLOMACY WERE CONTINUING, BUT THE UNITED STATES HAD NOT COME SEEKING GENUINE TALKS OR PEACE, THE IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON SAID ON TUESDAY.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
24 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 27¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 21¢, held +7.0ptspts
Peak move: +7.0pts
Held 86% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 22¢
Graded from 180 snapshots