US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 26¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 27¢ (band 27¢–74¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 bid, $4.8k/$2.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $57.8k in 24h

Book 2.0:1 bid, $4.8k/$2.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 18:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 26¢ → 23¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 85 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 23¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 23¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots