US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 81¢ at window start → 82¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $10.5k/$10.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $35.7k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $10.5k/$10.0k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 14:04 UTC: Band breach (lower): 81¢ → 80¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 79¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 80¢, held +0.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.8pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 82¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots