US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 14¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $8.3k/$10.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.1k, 4.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 5,774 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 ask, $8.3k/$10.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 11 Aug 2026, 18:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 11¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 19:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 11¢ → 14¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 75 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 11¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 11¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots