US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 16¢ at window start → 17¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $6.1k/$6.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.0k, 4.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 5,763 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 bid, $6.1k/$6.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 11 Aug 2026, 12:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 19¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 13:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 19¢ → 16¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 109 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 18¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 33% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 17¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots