US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +7.0pts: 7¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 bid, $10.6k/$5.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.9k, 3.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 5,696 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h

Book 2.1:1 bid, $10.6k/$5.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (5)

• 11 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 7¢ → 10¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 11:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 10¢ → 13¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 11:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 17¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 11:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 17¢ → 13¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 11:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 16¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 119 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 10¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 9¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +10.5pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots