REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Window 11 Aug 2026, 11:40 UTC → 11 Aug 2026, 13:10 UTC

Price at window start 22¢ → at trigger 26¢ → at close 28¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +5.5pts: 22¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
VOLUME 8.4× this market's 7-day norm, $10.6k in 24h
BOOK Book 4.5:1 ask, $2.0k/$9.2k within 10¢

Book 4.5:1 ask, $2.0k/$9.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

11 Aug 2026, 11:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 22¢ → 26¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.4× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 27¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
+30m: 28¢, held +5.5ptspts
Peak move: +5.5pts
Held 100% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 28¢
Graded from 180 snapshots