Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 16¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• BOOK Book 4.2:1 bid, $58.7k/$14.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.3k, 1.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,123 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $164.1k in 24h

Book 4.2:1 bid, $58.7k/$14.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 11:24 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 20¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.27× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 25 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots