South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 45¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 43¢ (band 43¢–63¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $74.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.1:1 ask, $13.2k/$40.9k within 10¢

Book 3.1:1 ask, $13.2k/$40.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 07:46 UTC: Band breach (lower): 45¢ → 43¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 76 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 43¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 43¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 42¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots