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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts: 50¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
• VOLUME 4.8× this market's 7-day norm, $226.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 23.9:1 ask, $943/$22.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.8k, 8.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,613 trades / 7d

Book 23.9:1 ask, $943/$22.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 11 Aug 2026, 21:56 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 47¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 23:15 UTC: Sustained reprice: 47¢ → 55¢ (+8.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 23:20 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 61¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 23:24 UTC: Sustained reprice: 61¢ → 56¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 403 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 55¢
• Graded from 181 snapshots