South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 43¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 43¢ (band 43¢–63¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $77.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 7.4:1 ask, $6.1k/$45.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.6k, 2.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,313 trades / 7d

Book 7.4:1 ask, $6.1k/$45.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 11 Aug 2026, 03:38 UTC: Band breach (lower): 44¢ → 43¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 04:00 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 46¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 11 Aug 2026, 05:06 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 43¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 117 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 43¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 43¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots