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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 26¢ at window start → 29¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–85¢)
  band from 161 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 3.1:1 ask, $3.5k/$11.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $775, 2.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,914 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $33.0k in 24h

Book 3.1:1 ask, $3.5k/$11.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 13:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 26¢ → 29¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 123 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 29¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 32¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 29¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots