Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 31¢ at window start → 29¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 30¢ (band 30¢–85¢)
  band from 160 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $49.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $3.8k/$5.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.5k, 5.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,475 trades / 7d

Book 1.4:1 ask, $3.8k/$5.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 21:58 UTC: Band breach (lower): 31¢ → 30¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@Polymarket · X: posted 1h 33m before the break

BREAKING: Trump-backed Mike Lindell crashes in the odds to win today's Minnesota GOP primary for governor, as Lisa Demuth surges. 28% chance for Lindell. https://t.co/t27chKdU3G

View the post

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 135 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 30¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 44% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 29¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots