Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 72¢ at window start → 71¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 71¢ (band 71¢–84¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.0× this market's 7-day norm, $89.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $11.6k/$20.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.4k, 7.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,364 trades / 7d

Book 1.8:1 ask, $11.6k/$20.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 23:06 UTC: Band breach (lower): 72¢ → 71¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 139 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 71¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 71¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 33% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 71¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots