Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 11¢ at window start → 10¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 11¢ (band 11¢–14¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $28.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $7.0k/$4.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.3k, 4.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 823 trades / 7d

Book 1.6:1 bid, $7.0k/$4.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC: Band breach (lower): 11¢ → 10¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 22 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 10¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 10¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 60% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 10¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots