Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 46¢ at window start → 45¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 ask, $1.7k/$2.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $2.2k in 24h

Book 1.7:1 ask, $1.7k/$2.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 11:20 UTC: Band breach (upper): 46¢ → 47¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 46¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 45¢, held -0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 45¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots