Best AI at the end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 64¢ at window start → 63¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 64¢ (band 64¢–68¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 3.1:1 bid, $5.2k/$1.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $8.9k in 24h

Book 3.1:1 bid, $5.2k/$1.7k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 00:27 UTC: Band breach (lower): 64¢ → 64¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 45 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 64¢, drift +0.3pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 64¢, held +0.9ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 63¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots