OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 11 Aug 2026, 17:55 UTC → 11 Aug 2026, 19:25 UTC
Price at window start 67¢ → at trigger 68¢ → at close 67¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.6pts: 67¢ at window start → 67¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.0:1 ask, $3.7k/$3.9k within 10¢
- VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $7.3k in 24h
Book 1.0:1 ask, $3.7k/$3.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢
Triggers (1)
- 11 Aug 2026, 17:55 UTC: Band breach (upper): 67¢ → 68¢ (+0.9pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.27× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 68¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 67¢, held -0.1ptspts
- Peak move: +1.0pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 67¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots