Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.2pts: 5¢ at window start → 5¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $6.9k/$4.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $81.8k in 24h

Book 1.7:1 bid, $6.9k/$4.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 11 Aug 2026, 06:57 UTC: Band breach (upper): 5¢ → 6¢ (+0.9pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.28× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 6¢, held +0.8ptspts
• Peak move: +1.1pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 5¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots